Shimizu (TSE:1803) Stock Price Trails A Profit Surge

Shimizu stock came into this earnings print on the back foot, with the share price down about 20.6% over three months and 7% over the past month, even before traders processed the latest numbers. That set the stage for a sentiment clash. The headline this quarter is not revenue; it is earnings power. Basic earnings per share for Q1 2027 landed at ¥81.36 and trailing 12‑month earnings per share sit at ¥251.96, while the stock still trades on a P/E of 9.5x and only slightly below a discounted cash flow fair value estimate.

Is Shimizu a straightforward bargain on 9.5x trailing earnings and a share price just below a discounted cash flow fair value estimate, or are the one off gains and earnings forecasts telling a different story? Compare that narrative against the detailed valuation analysis for Shimizu

Q1 2027 Earnings Summary

• Revenue (Q1 2027 vs Q1 2026): ¥482,829 million vs. ¥441,799 million (up 9.3%)
• Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q1 2027 vs Q1 2026): ¥55,257 million vs. ¥11,128 million (very large increase, around 5x)
• Basic EPS (Q1 2027 vs Q1 2026): ¥81.36 per share vs. ¥16.33 per share (very large increase, around 5x)
• Trailing 12 month Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q1 2027 vs Q1 2026): ¥170,746 million vs. ¥74,735 million (up 128.5%)

Prefer clean, visual charts instead of another wall of earnings tables and raw figures? Get a full picture of Shimizu, with its valuation front and center in an easy-to-scan dashboard, through the company report for Shimizu.

Shimizu earnings power and the bullish read

For anyone leaning positive on Shimizu, the latest earnings give some support. Revenue for Q1 2027 is higher than Q1 2026. Net income excluding extra items and basic EPS are both around 5x the prior year quarter. Trailing 12 month net income excluding extra items is also materially higher than a year ago. That points to improving earnings power from the core business. The recent board changes that emphasise sustainability and governance add a qualitative support for investors who care about risk control in long duration infrastructure and construction projects.

Where the Shimizu bear case still bites

Bears can still point to recent share price performance. The stock is down about 20.6% over three months, 7% over one month and 3.2% over seven days. That indicates investors have not fully embraced the stronger earnings yet. Construction remains exposed to project execution risk and cost pressure, and the complex business mix can make results harder to read quarter to quarter. Even with stronger profit metrics, the market appears cautious and is asking Shimizu to demonstrate that these higher earnings are durable rather than temporary.

After such a sharp earnings swing and a volatile share price, it is worth asking if these are isolated blips or hints of deeper structural issues. Review the full risk analysis for Shimizu which shows 4 important warning signs

Take Charge Of Your Next Move

If Shimizu now looks more interesting after this sharp shift in earnings and sentiment, register for free with Simply Wall St and add it to a Watchlist to track the share price against fair value and watch for a more attractive entry point. Once you own Shimizu or other stocks, keep your decisions grounded in data with the Portfolio Command Center that filters out noise and highlights the updates that matter most. For a broader view on what other investors are seeing, use the Community to compare your thinking with a wide range of perspectives. By surfacing potential catalysts and risks early, Simply Wall St helps you stay informed about the market and act with more confidence.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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