Down 39%, are Treasury Wine shares now a bargain buy?

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares are on the rise today

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) global wine company closed yesterday trading for $4.71. In early afternoon trade on Tuesday, shares are swapping hands for $4.82 each, up 2.2%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.3% at this same time.

Unfortunately for longer-term shareholders, today's outperformance hasn't been the norm for the stock, with Treasury Wine shares down 39.1% over 12 months.

Although brave investors who bought the company at its multi-year closing low of $3.37 on 26 March won't be complaining, with the share price having rebounded 43% from that low-water mark.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

Should I buy Treasury Wine shares today?

For some greater insight into this question, we defer to Baker Young's Toby Grimm and Medallion Financial Group's Philippe Bui (courtesy of The Bull).

Both analysts recently ran their slide rules over the ASX 200 wine company and came out with differing recommendation.

In his more bullish assessment, Grimm issued a hold recommendation for Treasury Wine shares.

"Adverse category trends in the United States and China impacted this global wine company," he said of Treasury Wine Estates' recent struggles.

According to Grimm:

Cyclically, it's too early to call a bottom in wine sales and margins, but new management has announced significant steps to improve supply chain flexibility amid reducing exposure to commercial wine.

Summarising his hold recommendation, Grimm concluded:

We envisage a recovery from here. However, the new strategy carries execution risk and potentially limits earnings in good times. But, if successful, it should improve profitability if wine industry dynamics don't recover as rapidly as hoped.

A more bearish take on the ASX 200 wine stock

Medallion Financial Group's Bui had a less optimistic take on the ASX 200 wine company.

"The winemaker is undertaking a major transformation program," he noted.

Bui added:

It reported a statutory net loss after tax of $649.4 million in the first half of fiscal year 2026, driven by non-cash impairments of US assets. It suspended the interim dividend in what it deemed a temporary measure to preserve capital and reduce leverage.

As for his sell recommendation on Treasury Wine shares, Bui concluded:

In our view, the turnaround plan, which includes reducing non-core brands, presents a headwind, as they represent significant volume. A recovery will take time, so we see better opportunities elsewhere.

The post Down 39%, are Treasury Wine shares now a bargain buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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