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    Pagaya Technologies (PGY) Following Its $900 Million ABS Deal Still Looks Cheap To Bulls

    Simply Wall St·07/27/2026 23:29:11
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    Pagaya Technologies (PGY) recently closed an upsized, AAA-rated US$900 million personal loan ABS deal under its PAID 2026-5 program, a financing milestone supported by record year-to-date issuance volumes.

    See our latest analysis for Pagaya Technologies.

    The latest ABS milestone comes as Pagaya Technologies’ share price has climbed 25.91% over the past 90 days but remains down 23.88% year to date, with a 1 year total shareholder return that has declined 45.45%. This points to improving short term momentum against a weaker longer term record.

    If this kind of funding news has you thinking about where else AI in finance could matter, it may be worth scanning 65 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash for other potential ideas.

    After Pagaya Technologies’ recent ABS record and sharp 90 day share price move, the trade off is clear: lean into the current momentum or wait for a pullback. How does the current valuation stack up against that choice?

    Most Popular Narrative: 66.6% Undervalued

    According to the most followed narrative on Pagaya Technologies, a fair value of $50.82 versus the last close at $16.96 points to a wide valuation gap that the market has yet to close. This is where the ABS funding momentum and recent profitability start to matter.

    Pagaya Technologies is entering a "Goldilocks" scenario. For the last two years, it operated under high interest rates, which compressed margins. Now, as the Federal Reserve cuts rates, Pagaya is poised for a massive expansion in both volume and profitability. The company has already achieved a critical milestone, GAAP Profitability in 2025. The market is still pricing $PGY as a risky, unprofitable SPAC, failing to recognize that it has become the critical AI underwriting infrastructure for the US banking system.

    Read the complete narrative.

    The author behind this narrative, Talos, builds the $50.82 fair value on a specific mix of revenue expansion, rising profit margins and a future earnings multiple that assumes Pagaya Technologies keeps compounding its role as core AI infrastructure for lenders, without treating past SPAC volatility as the reference point.

    Result: Fair Value of $50.82 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, Pagaya Technologies’ narrative could be knocked off course if ABS funding conditions tighten again, or if banking partners slow adoption of its AI underwriting tools.

    Find out about the key risks to this Pagaya Technologies narrative.

    Next Steps

    Sentiment on Pagaya Technologies is clearly mixed. If this ABS milestone has your attention, it makes sense to review the data now and weigh both sides of the story through 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Pagaya Technologies?

    If Pagaya Technologies is on your radar, do not stop there; broaden your watchlist with other stocks that match clear, data driven criteria before the next move.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.