Analysts Are Updating Their Givaudan SA (VTX:GIVN) Estimates After Its Half-Yearly Results
Givaudan SA (VTX:GIVN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.6% to CHF3,196 in the week after its latest half-yearly results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of CHF3.8b and statutory earnings per share of CHF115 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Givaudan is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Givaudan's 19 analysts is for revenues of CHF7.59b in 2026. This reflects an okay 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 9.8% to CHF113. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF7.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF116 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Givaudan
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CHF3,461, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Givaudan analyst has a price target of CHF4,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF2,800. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Givaudan's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 4.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.6% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Givaudan is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Givaudan analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Givaudan that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.