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    Does Sustained Alixorexton Data in Narcolepsy Reshape The Bull Case For Alkermes (ALKS)?

    Simply Wall St·07/24/2026 23:35:01
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    • Earlier in July 2026, Alkermes reported interim results from its long-term extension study showing alixorexton produced sustained, clinically meaningful improvements in wakefulness, sleepiness, cognition and fatigue for adults with narcolepsy type 1 and 2, with a generally favorable safety profile across dose groups.
    • The data, coupled with US and European regulatory designations and ongoing phase 3 Brilliance trials, underscores alixorexton’s potential to anchor Alkermes’ emerging orexin 2 receptor agonist franchise in sleep-wake disorders.
    • We’ll now examine how these long-term alixorexton results, particularly the sustained improvements in Maintenance of Wakefulness Test outcomes, reshape Alkermes’ investment narrative.

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    Alkermes Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Alkermes, you need to believe that alixorexton can mature into a meaningful fourth pillar alongside Vivitrol, Aristada and Lybalvi, offsetting patent and pricing pressures over time. The latest long term extension data strengthens the near term Phase 3 Brilliance program as the key catalyst, while trial or regulatory setbacks around alixorexton remain the biggest risk. These interim results look encouraging for that catalyst but do not remove execution or approval risk.

    Among recent announcements, the FDA’s Breakthrough Therapy designation for alixorexton in narcolepsy type 1 stands out as most relevant. Paired with the new long term data, it frames a clearer regulatory path and heightens attention on Brilliance Phase 3 readouts as a potential inflection point for Alkermes’ orexin 2 receptor ambitions and its broader earnings mix.

    Yet behind the promising orexin story, investors should also be aware of rising R&D spend and what happens if late stage trials do not...

    Read the full narrative on Alkermes (it's free!)

    Alkermes' narrative projects $2.1 billion revenue and $264.8 million earnings by 2029. This requires 11.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $112 million earnings increase from $152.7 million today.

    Uncover how Alkermes' forecasts yield a $47.69 fair value, a 10% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ALKS 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ALKS 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts were already modeling revenue of about US$2.8 billion and earnings near US$813.0 million by 2029, so this new alixorexton data could either reinforce that bullish view or lead you to reassess how much risk around pipeline concentration you are really comfortable with.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Alkermes - why the stock might be worth as much as 91% more than the current price!

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.