Vector (NZSE:VCT) Reports Electricity Growth, Is The Stock Fully Valued?
Operating results highlight electricity growth and softer gas trends
Vector (NZSE:VCT) has released unaudited operating results for the year ended 30 June 2026, providing data on customer trends and energy volumes across its electricity and gas distribution networks.
The update shows electricity customers at 642,134 compared with 632,106 a year earlier, alongside 13,017 new electricity connections and 8,794 GWh of electricity distributed. Gas distribution reported 119,991 customers, 710 new connections and 11.7 PJ of volume.
See our latest analysis for Vector.
Vector shares trade at NZ$5.01, with a 30 day share price return of 3.09% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 20.38%, indicating recent momentum building on stronger longer term gains.
If you are looking beyond utilities for other potential opportunities in the market, this could be a good moment to scan 35 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks
After a strong multi year share price run and with only a fraction of a percent gap to analyst targets, the question is whether Vector’s current valuation still reflects market caution or has already priced in its latest progress.
Most Popular Narrative: 0.1% Undervalued
The most followed narrative on Vector places fair value at NZ$5.02, almost exactly in line with the last close at NZ$5.01, framing a finely balanced view of upside.
Higher expected long-term electricity demand from Auckland's ongoing urban growth and accelerating electrification (including EV adoption) is likely to drive steady growth in regulated asset base, supporting sustainable increases in regulated revenues.
Regulatory resets (DPP4) have resulted in a step-up in allowed distribution revenues beginning April 2025, and with ongoing customer-driven network connections, this should underpin robust revenue growth and enhanced EBITDA over the next regulatory cycle.
Want to see what sits behind this tight fair value range for Vector? The narrative leans on a specific mix of projected revenue growth, margin expansion, and a future earnings multiple that looks very different to today. Curious which assumptions need to line up for that to hold? The full breakdown joins those pieces together in detail.
Result: Fair Value of NZ$5.02 (ABOUT RIGHT)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the Vector story could look very different if regulatory settings tighten, or if ongoing gas segment uncertainty leads to further asset write downs and a weaker earnings mix.
Find out about the key risks to this Vector narrative.
Another view on Vector’s valuation using earnings multiples
While the most popular Vector narrative points to a fair value close to the current NZ$5.01 share price, the earnings multiple shows a different picture. Vector trades on a P/E of 33.6x, above the global integrated utilities average of 19.2x and above its own fair ratio of 31.2x. This suggests the market is paying a premium that could limit upside if sentiment cools.
For a closer look at how these valuation gaps stack up in practice, including how they compare with peers, check the See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
This mix of optimism and concern around Vector is clear, so move quickly to test the numbers for yourself and weigh both sides of the story using 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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