Is Hagerty (HGTY) Undervalued After Broad Arrow’s Quail Auction Debut?
Hagerty (HGTY) is back in focus after its Broad Arrow subsidiary announced the inaugural Quail Auction, which will showcase nearly 200 rare RUF, Singer, and Porsche collector cars in Carmel, California, this August.
See our latest analysis for Hagerty.
For investors watching Hagerty around the Quail Auction announcement, the share price has been choppy, with a 30 day share price return of 7.82% and a year to date share price decline of 10.87%. The 1 year total shareholder return stands at 15.58%, suggesting longer term holders have seen a different experience from recent traders.
If the Quail Auction has you thinking about what else could benefit from strong enthusiast demand and niche themes, it may be a good time to scan 18 top founder-led companies
Hagerty clearly has a focused collector car insurance and marketplace business, but after the recent share price swings around the Quail news, is the current US$11.72 share price offering fair value or asking too much?
Most Popular Narrative: 21.9% Undervalued
At a last close of $11.72 versus a narrative fair value of $15.00, Hagerty is framed as undervalued, with that view hinging on aggressive earnings power.
The shift toward Hagerty Re retaining 100% of the underwriting risk on the U.S. book, combined with an 87% combined ratio and a 77% rise in adjusted EBITDA to US$85 million in Q1 2026, points to greater control over insurance economics that can support higher earnings and cash flow over time.
Curious what kind of earnings ramp, margin expansion and valuation multiple this narrative uses to justify that higher fair value on Hagerty? The full story connects underwriting control, membership monetization and marketplace fees into one aggressive profit trajectory.
Result: Fair Value of $15.00 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the bullish Hagerty narrative still hinges on collector car enthusiasm staying resilient, and on Hagerty Re managing 100% retained underwriting risk without a sustained rise in the combined ratio.
Find out about the key risks to this Hagerty narrative.
Another View: What Hagerty’s P/E Says About Pricing
The narrative fair value paints Hagerty as undervalued, but the current P/E of 45.9x is higher than both the estimated fair ratio of 34.7x and the US Insurance industry average of 12.5x, as well as the 38x peer average. That gap points to valuation risk if expectations ease.
For a closer look at how this P/E gap could close over time or widen further, it is worth reviewing the detailed valuation breakdown, including how earnings quality and growth assumptions feed into it, in the See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
If this Hagerty story so far feels mixed but interesting, consider reviewing the numbers and narrative for yourself. To see what optimism in the data looks like, take a closer look at the 2 key rewards.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Hagerty?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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