Earnings Miss: AAK AB (publ.) Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
AAK AB (publ.) (STO:AAK) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. AAK AB (publ.) missed earnings this time around, with kr11b revenue coming in 3.7% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr3.06 also fell short of expectations by 11%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Following last week's earnings report, AAK AB (publ.)'s seven analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be kr46.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be kr13.86, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr47.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr14.69 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
View our latest analysis for AAK AB (publ.)
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 10% to kr269, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on AAK AB (publ.), with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr300 and the most bearish at kr197 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of AAK AB (publ.)'shistorical trends, as the 3.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 4.2% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 4.2% annually. So although AAK AB (publ.) is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for AAK AB (publ.). On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of AAK AB (publ.)'s future valuation.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AAK AB (publ.) going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also view our analysis of AAK AB (publ.)'s balance sheet, and whether we think AAK AB (publ.) is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.