Berenberg Updates Model for Rio Tinto Post-Q2 Production Report; Hold Rating Kept

02:12 AM EDT, 07/17/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg revised its model for Rio Tinto Group (RIO.L), tweaking its price target and earnings estimates for the mining giant after the publication of its second-quarter production results. "Production guidance was maintained across all commodities, with the company reiterating Pilbara (Australia) unit cost guidance at USD23.5-25 [per wet metric tonne], but flagging that elevated diesel prices resulted in a USD0.8 [per tonne] yoy increase in H1; we think the cost line at Pilbara can face further pressure amid still-elevated diesel prices. Full-year copper C1 net unit cost guidance was revised to USD0.30-0.50 [per pound] from USD0.65-0.75/lb, which we think does not come as a surprise given the tailwind from resilient gold prices," according to a Thursday report. Analysts added that Rio Tinto flagged a $443 million tax payment in Mongolia, alongside a first-half cash outflow of $1.2 billion, due to working capital expansion, mainly due to an increase in inventories at its iron ore operations. The group is scheduled to publish its half-year results on July 28, London time. Within this context, the research firm trimmed its price target to 81 pounds sterling from 82 pounds and maintained its hold rating. While its EPS projections for full-year 2026 through 2028 were increased, Berenberg lowered its 2026 sales forecast by 0.2%, before raising its estimates by 0.2% for both 2027 and 2028.