Realty Income Is the Dividend Stock I'd Buy as Cooling Inflation Turns Into a Tailwind

Tuesday brought the kind of inflation report investors have been waiting on all year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% year over year in June, down sharply from 4.2% in May and below economists' expectations, as gasoline prices posted their biggest monthly drop in years. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, cooled to 2.6% from 2.9%.

For most stocks, that's background news. For Realty Income (NYSE: O), one of the market's most rate-sensitive dividend stocks, it's closer to the main event. After a year in which hot inflation kept the threat of Federal Reserve rate hikes alive, the pressure on this real estate investment trust (REIT) may finally be easing.

Here's why I'd consider buying the stock now.

A 5% yield, paid monthly

Realty Income calls itself The Monthly Dividend Company, and the numbers back the branding. The company has declared more than 670 consecutive monthly dividends, and it has increased its payout for over 31 consecutive years, making it a member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats® index (the term Dividend Aristocrats® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC).

In March, the company announced its 114th consecutive quarterly dividend increase, and the monthly dividends it paid during the first quarter were up 1.8% year over year. At about $63 per share, the stock's annualized dividend of about $3.25 works out to a yield just over 5.1%.

The business behind the payout is deliberately boring. Realty Income owns 15,571 properties leased to 1,786 clients across 92 industries, mostly under long-term net leases (agreements in which the tenant covers taxes, insurance, and maintenance). The weighted average lease has about 8.7 years remaining. And portfolio occupancy held steady at 98.9% at the end of the first quarter.

The dividend is well covered, too. Realty Income paid out about 72% of its first-quarter adjusted funds from operations (AFFO), a common measure of a REIT's cash earnings.

AFFO per share rose 6.6% year over year in the first quarter to $1.13, and management raised its full-year guidance to a range of $4.41 to $4.44 -- annual growth of 3% to 3.7%, with the first quarter running ahead of that pace. It's a modest trajectory. It's also exactly what income investors are here for.

Why Tuesday's report matters so much here

Realty Income grows by raising money and buying more properties, pocketing the difference between its cost of capital and the rental yields on what it buys. In the first quarter, it invested $2.8 billion, with its $2.6 billion pro-rata share carrying an initial weighted average cash yield of 7.1%. Management also lifted its full-year investment guidance to $9.5 billion from $8 billion.

Interest rates sit on both sides of that equation. When rates rise, Realty Income's borrowing costs climb, and the spread on new deals narrows. Rising rates also give income investors a risk-free alternative, which tends to pull REIT share prices down until their yields look competitive again. Falling rate pressure eases both problems at once.

That's what makes June's inflation data such a welcome development. With inflation running hot this spring, traders had been pricing in meaningful odds that the Fed would raise rates again. After Tuesday's report, those bets faded fast. Market pricing now points to an 86% chance the central bank holds steady at its July 29 meeting, according to CME FedWatch data.

Of course, one good inflation print doesn't settle anything. Inflation at 3.5% remains well above the Fed's 2% target, and June's improvement leaned heavily on falling gas prices, which can reverse. If inflation reaccelerates, the rate threat comes right back, and Realty Income's stock would likely feel it.

There are business risks, too. Realty Income's tenants are heavily concentrated in retail, where struggling chains can hand back keys. And AFFO growth of 3% to 4% a year will never make this a growth stock.

But the stock's valuation may already reflect those limitations. At about $63 per share as of this writing, the stock trades at roughly 14 times the midpoint of this year's expected AFFO, and about 7% below its 52-week high.

So that's the case. An annual yield above 5% from a portfolio that stays nearly full in good markets and bad, with three decades of dividend increases behind it -- and the rate pressure that has weighed on the stock is finally easing. Overall, I'd consider buying Realty Income here and let the monthly checks do the compounding.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Realty Income. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.