Morgan Stanley Energy Partners says global M&A deal value rises 17% YTD in 2026 despite volatility

• Morgan Stanley Energy Partners flagged a stronger-than-expected M&A rebound in 2026, with announced deal value up 17% year-to-date.
• Private equity buyout activity stayed flat to slightly down, despite the broader upswing in total M&A.
• PE participation in overall deal activity fell below 31%, the first drop to that level in 10 years, signaling cautious buyer and seller behavior.
• Mega-deals led by strategic buyers drove the recovery, while middle-market volumes rose only modestly.
• The outlook expects middle-market PE deal flow to re-accelerate in the second half as volatility fades, with rate hikes a key downside risk.

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