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    Have Finnair Oyj (HLSE:FIA1S) Shares Run 48% Ahead Of Fair Value On Fleet News?

    Simply Wall St·07/12/2026 04:28:24
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    Finnair Oyj (HLSE:FIA1S) is in focus after Avation PLC agreed long term leases for two ATR 72-600 aircraft with the airline, alongside the release of July 2026 traffic statistics.

    See our latest analysis for Finnair Oyj.

    Against this backdrop, Finnair Oyj’s 11.15% 1 month share price return and 69.51% 3 month share price return suggest building momentum, although the 5 year total shareholder return is still down 48.95% despite a 74.05% gain over 1 year.

    If you are looking beyond airlines for what could be moving next, this is a useful moment to broaden your search and check out the 105 top founder-led companies

    After such a sharp move in Finnair Oyj’s share price, the key issue now is whether recent fleet and traffic updates still leave meaningful upside on the table or if most of the rerating has already played out.

    Most Popular Narrative: 48% Overvalued

    Finnair Oyj last closed at €5.08, while the most followed narrative places fair value at €3.43, so the story hinges on whether current optimism outpaces those assumptions.

    Finnair plans to increase its total capacity in terms of Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) by approximately 10% in 2025, which is expected to drive revenue growth as more capacity can accommodate increased passenger demand. The renewal of the narrow-body fleet is in progress, and investing in more fuel-efficient aircraft could reduce operating costs and improve net margins over time.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Growth, margins, and future earnings are all carefully wired into this fair value story. One core assumption about profitability does most of the heavy lifting. Curious which one controls the gap between €3.43 and today’s price?

    Result: Fair Value of €3.43 (OVERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, rising operating costs and unresolved industrial disputes at Finnair Oyj could still pressure margins and undermine confidence in the current fair value narrative.

    Find out about the key risks to this Finnair Oyj narrative.

    Another View on Finnair Oyj’s Valuation

    The analyst fair value of €3.43 suggests Finnair Oyj is overvalued, yet current market pricing tells a different story when you look at earnings. The stock trades on a P/E of 17.3x versus a fair ratio of 19.5x, while the Global Airlines average sits at 9.9x and peers at 13.3x. That mix of relative expensiveness to the sector and discount to the fair ratio raises a simple question: is the risk that earnings fall back, or that the market edges closer to that higher ratio over time?

    See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

    HLSE:FIA1S P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026
    HLSE:FIA1S P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026

    Next Steps

    Mixed signals around Finnair Oyj’s valuation and outlook can be hard to read, so review the underlying data, weigh the concerns and opportunities, and then check the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Finnair Oyj?

    If Finnair Oyj has caught your attention, this is the moment to widen your search and pressure test your thinking with other focused stock ideas.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.