Is Intuit (INTU) Still Fairly Priced After Its Recent Multi Year Share Price Run

• If you are wondering whether Intuit's share price still reflects its underlying worth after a strong multi year run, this article walks through what the current numbers actually say about value.
• At a last close of US$651.15, the stock has seen a 1.7% decline over the past 7 days and a 0.8% decline over 30 days, while returns sit at 3.4% year to date, 4.7% over 1 year, 67.7% over 3 years and 83.8% over 5 years.
• Recent coverage has focused on Intuit's position as a key player in tax and financial software and recurring attention around its role in personal finance tools, which helps explain why the stock continues to attract interest even when returns are mixed over shorter periods. These themes help set the context for assessing whether the current share price lines up with the fundamentals.
• On our checks the company has a valuation score of 3 out of 6, which means some measures suggest the shares may be priced more attractively than others. Next, we will compare common valuation approaches and then finish with a broader framework that can give you an even clearer view of value.

Find out why Intuit's 4.7% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Intuit Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes the cash Intuit is expected to generate in the future, then discounts those amounts back to today to estimate what the business might be worth right now.

For Intuit, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $6.25b. Analysts and extrapolated estimates point to projected Free Cash Flow of $11.76b in 2030, with a series of annual forecasts between now and 2035. These projections are fed into a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, which applies a higher growth phase at the start and a more mature phase later on, then discounts all those cash flows back to today using a required rate of return.

On this basis, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $765.45 per share, compared with the recent share price of $651.15. That implies Intuit trades at a 14.9% discount to this DCF estimate, which points to the shares looking undervalued according to this method alone.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Intuit is undervalued by 14.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 880 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Intuit.

Approach 2: Intuit Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Intuit, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about value because it links what you pay per share to the earnings the business is currently generating. In general, higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually call for a lower, more conservative multiple.

Intuit currently trades on a P/E of 44.0x. That sits above the broader Software industry average of 32.7x, but below the peer group average of 50.5x. To go a step further, Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio”, which is the P/E multiple you might reasonably expect given factors such as Intuit’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risk characteristics.

Because the Fair Ratio incorporates these company specific drivers, it can be more informative than simply lining Intuit up against a sector or peer average that may not share the same growth or risk mix. For Intuit, the Fair Ratio comes out at 39.6x, which is lower than the current 44.0x P/E. On this comparison, the shares screen as somewhat expensive on earnings.

Result: OVERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1443 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Intuit Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives to link your view of Intuit’s story to your own forecast for revenue, earnings and margins. You can convert that into a fair value, compare it to the current share price to help decide whether to buy or sell, and then see that fair value update automatically as new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a bullish Intuit Narrative around AI agents, mid market expansion and a fair value near US$803.89, while another might focus on Mailchimp softness, Credit Karma cyclicality and set a fair value closer to US$600.

Do you think there's more to the story for Intuit? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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