Will Lisbon’s Short‑Term Rental Reversal Reframe Airbnb’s (ABNB) Regulatory Risk Narrative?

• Lisbon recently reversed its moratorium on new short-term holiday lets while extending licence requirements across more of the city, a shift Airbnb says highlights the limits of strict curbs in improving housing affordability.
• Airbnb argues that these tougher but more targeted rules actually broaden earning opportunities for local hosts and may ease cost pressures for visitors, reshaping how regulators think about balancing tourism and housing goals.
• With Lisbon’s policy reversal as a backdrop, we’ll explore how evolving regulatory attitudes toward short-term rentals could influence Airbnb’s investment narrative.

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Airbnb Investment Narrative Recap

To own Airbnb, you have to believe its global platform can keep matching travel demand with flexible supply while working within tighter local rules. Lisbon’s reversal of its short term rental moratorium shows how blunt crackdowns can be reconsidered, but it does not remove regulatory risk as the key overhang, or change that near term sentiment is still shaped by how cities, not just travelers, respond to Airbnb.

Against that backdrop, Airbnb’s recent Q3 2025 results, with quarterly revenue of US$4,095 million and net income of US$1,374 million, matter because they show the company operating profitably while regulatory debates continue. For investors focused on catalysts, consistent profitability and ongoing share repurchases under the US$6,000 million buyback program may help support confidence if new rules in cities like Lisbon keep evolving rather than tightening in a straight line.

Yet beneath the upbeat story, there is a regulatory risk investors should understand more fully in terms of how fast rules can shift and...

Read the full narrative on Airbnb (it's free!)

Airbnb's narrative projects $15.4 billion revenue and $3.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 10.0% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $1.1 billion from $2.6 billion today.

Uncover how Airbnb's forecasts yield a $138.12 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

While consensus sees steady but slower growth, the most optimistic analysts were modeling about US$16.5 billion in revenue and US$4.3 billion in earnings by 2028, a far rosier path that could look very different if Lisbon style policy reversals spread or, just as easily, if other cities double down on restrictions.

Explore 24 other fair value estimates on Airbnb - why the stock might be worth 24% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Airbnb Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Airbnb research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Airbnb research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Airbnb's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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