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    Hybrid-Led Market Share Gains Could Be A Game Changer For Ford Motor (F)

    Simply Wall St·01/08/2026 07:22:49
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    • In the fourth quarter of 2025, Ford Motor’s U.S. sales rose 3% to 545,216 vehicles, capping its strongest annual U.S. performance since 2019 with 6% growth to 2.20 billion vehicles and market share gains across the year and quarter.
    • A key driver behind this momentum was surging hybrid demand, about 22% higher in 2025, supporting Ford’s “power of choice” mix of gas, hybrid, and electric models while the broader EV boom cooled.
    • Now we’ll examine how Ford’s U.S. market share gains and hybrid strength might influence its existing investment narrative and risk profile.

    Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

    Ford Motor Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Ford today, you need to believe it can keep turning its strong U.S. franchise, cost discipline and “power of choice” lineup into resilient cash generation, even as the industry shifts toward electrification. The latest sales data and hybrid momentum support that thesis near term, but they do not materially change the key catalyst around scaling higher margin software and Ford Pro, nor the major risks from tariffs, legacy ICE exposure and execution on its reworked EV and hybrid roadmap.

    Against this backdrop, Ford’s decision to refocus Ford+ on expanding hybrid and extended range offerings, while replatforming future EVs, stands out as the most relevant recent move. It ties directly into the sales strength you are seeing in hybrids and supports the near term catalyst of optimizing the mix of gas, hybrid and EV models while trying to contain investment risk and protect margins during a period of slower EV demand growth.

    But while the top line story looks constructive, investors should also be aware that recurring warranty and recall costs, along with execution challenges on new platforms, could still...

    Read the full narrative on Ford Motor (it's free!)

    Ford Motor's narrative projects $183.9 billion revenue and $6.6 billion earnings by 2028. This implies revenue declining by 0.2% per year and a $3.4 billion earnings increase from $3.2 billion today.

    Uncover how Ford Motor's forecasts yield a $12.52 fair value, a 9% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    F 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    F 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Fifteen members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Ford’s fair value between US$7.23 and US$15.67 per share, reflecting very different expectations. When you weigh those views against Ford’s reliance on higher margin software, services and Ford Pro to offset tariff and ICE transition pressures, it underlines why many investors want to compare several perspectives before forming a view on the company’s longer term performance.

    Explore 15 other fair value estimates on Ford Motor - why the stock might be worth as much as 14% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Ford Motor Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.