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    Alumis (ALMS) Is Up 83.6% After Phase 3 Psoriasis Win And NDA Plan - Has The Bull Case Changed?

    Simply Wall St·01/08/2026 05:31:50
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    • Alumis Inc. recently reported positive topline Phase 3 ONWARD1 and ONWARD2 results for envudeucitinib in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, where the oral TYK2 inhibitor met all primary and secondary endpoints with high statistical significance versus placebo and an active comparator.
    • By pairing these data with plans for a U.S. FDA New Drug Application in the second half of 2026 and ongoing studies in systemic lupus erythematosus, Alumis is positioning envudeucitinib as a potential cornerstone therapy across multiple immune-mediated diseases.
    • Next, we will examine how envudeucitinib’s strong Phase 3 efficacy profile shapes Alumis’s investment narrative and future growth drivers.

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    What Is Alumis' Investment Narrative?

    To own Alumis after the ONWARD readout, you have to believe envudeucitinib can become a meaningful oral option in immune-mediated disease and that the company can convert strong psoriasis efficacy into an approved product while still early in its SLE program. The Phase 3 success clearly upgrades the near-term catalyst stack, with the planned US FDA NDA in the second half of 2026 now the central focus, alongside LUMUS SLE data. At the same time, the follow-on equity raise highlights the ongoing need for capital in a business that is still loss-making and forecast to remain unprofitable, and the budoprutug-related lawsuit adds another layer of uncertainty. After a very large share price move, execution risk and dilution feel more immediate than before this data.

    However, one risk around future funding and shareholder dilution is easy to overlook. Insights from our recent valuation report point to the potential overvaluation of Alumis shares in the market.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ALMS 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ALMS 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates span US$2.11 to US$31.29, highlighting sharply different expectations. Set that against the recent Phase 3 win and ongoing cash needs, and you can see why opinions on Alumis’s longer term performance may continue to diverge.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Alumis - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.