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    A Look At LyondellBasell (LYB) Valuation As Q4 Earnings And Sector Headwinds Test Investor Caution

    Simply Wall St·01/08/2026 01:36:22
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    LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) is back in focus as it prepares to release its fourth quarter 2025 results. This event could clarify how ongoing sector headwinds are feeding through to earnings.

    See our latest analysis for LyondellBasell Industries.

    At a share price of US$44.91, LyondellBasell’s 7 day share price return of 3.72% and 30 day share price return of 6.22% sit against a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 32.45%. This suggests near term momentum has improved, while longer term performance remains weak as investors weigh sector headwinds ahead of the upcoming earnings release.

    If this earnings update has you reassessing the chemicals space, it might be worth widening your search to other materials linked names using fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

    With LyondellBasell trading at US$44.91, sitting below analyst targets and an implied intrinsic value, the key question is whether weak multi year returns already reflect sector risks or whether the market is still underestimating the company’s future growth potential.

    Most Popular Narrative: 13% Undervalued

    Compared with the last close of US$44.91, the most followed narrative points to a higher fair value, anchored in changing mix and margin assumptions.

    LyondellBasell's strategic investments in circular and advanced recycling (MoReTec-1 and plans for MoReTec-2, plus expanding renewable feedstock capacity in Europe) position the company to benefit from rising regulatory and consumer demand for recycled and sustainable plastics, improving product mix and supporting higher net margins and long-term revenue growth.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious what sits behind that valuation gap? The narrative leans heavily on a sharp profit margin shift and a very different earnings run rate by the late 2020s. Result: Fair Value of $51.61 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this hinges on assumptions that could easily be challenged if a prolonged petrochemical downturn or delays to projects like MoReTec-2 and Flex-2 materialise.

    Find out about the key risks to this LyondellBasell Industries narrative.

    Build Your Own LyondellBasell Industries Narrative

    If you see the numbers differently or simply want to test your own assumptions, you can build a personalized view of LyondellBasell in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your LyondellBasell Industries research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If you want a broader set of opportunities beyond LyondellBasell, it is worth scanning other corners of the market where different themes and income profiles show up quickly.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.