Is It Too Late To Reconsider Umicore (ENXTBR:UMI) After Its 95% One-Year Surge?

• If you are wondering whether Umicore at €19.64 is still good value after its recent run, this article will walk you through what the current price might be saying about the stock.
• The share price move is not small, with returns of 8.7% over the last 7 days, 25.1% over 30 days, 5.6% year to date and 94.6% over 1 year, set against 3 year and 5 year returns of 40.1% and 51.5% declines.
• These swings have put Umicore back on many investors' radars, especially as the company continues to be part of broader conversations around materials and clean technology supply chains. Recent coverage has focused on how companies in this space are positioning for future demand. This provides useful context when you look at a stock that has both sharp recent gains and longer term declines.
• At the same time, Umicore currently holds a valuation score of 0/6. We will look at what different valuation approaches say about that score, and then finish with a practical way to bring all those methods together into a clearer view of value.

Umicore scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Umicore Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back into today’s euros using a required rate of return.

For Umicore, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of €85.1 million, so the valuation leans heavily on projections rather than recent cash generation. Analyst estimates and extrapolations point to free cash flow of €134.2 million in 2026 and €213 million in 2028, with further projected figures reaching about €222.2 million by 2035. All figures are in euros and all are below €1 billion.

When these projected cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of €13.39 per share, compared with the current share price of €19.64. That gap indicates the stock is about 46.6% above this DCF estimate, so on this measure you are paying a clear premium to the model’s value.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Umicore may be overvalued by 46.6%. Discover 877 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Umicore.

Approach 2: Umicore Price vs Earnings

For a company that is generating earnings, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to see how much you are paying for each euro of profit. It links directly to what many investors focus on: the relationship between today’s share price and current earnings power.

What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually lines up with a lower P/E.

Umicore currently trades on a P/E of 36.68x. That sits above the Chemicals industry average P/E of 21.79x and the peer group average of 19.16x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio, which estimates the P/E you might expect given factors like earnings growth profile, industry, profit margin, market cap and company-specific risks, is 19.98x. Because the Fair Ratio is tailored to Umicore’s own characteristics, it can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry.

With the actual P/E of 36.68x versus a Fair Ratio of 19.98x, the shares look expensive on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1448 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Umicore Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. Narratives let you set out your story for a company by linking your assumptions for fair value, future revenue, earnings and margins to that story. They then automatically connect those assumptions to a forecast and a fair value that you can compare with the current share price to decide whether the stock looks attractive or not. This all happens inside Simply Wall St’s Community page, where Narratives update when new information such as news or earnings is added. One investor might build an Umicore Narrative that focuses on cost savings, global footprint and margin improvement, and arrive at a fair value close to €21.00. Another might focus on sector headwinds, Battery Materials and Recycling risks, and arrive at a fair value closer to €10.00.

Do you think there's more to the story for Umicore? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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