The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But if you buy shares in a really great company, you can more than double your money. For instance the MIRAIT ONE Corporation (TSE:1417) share price is 142% higher than it was three years ago. How nice for those who held the stock! On top of that, the share price is up 24% in about a quarter.
Since the stock has added JP¥11b to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During three years of share price growth, MIRAIT ONE achieved compound earnings per share growth of 8.6% per year. In comparison, the 34% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that MIRAIT ONE has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, MIRAIT ONE's TSR for the last 3 years was 167%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
It's good to see that MIRAIT ONE has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 66% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 19% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. Is MIRAIT ONE cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.
But note: MIRAIT ONE may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.