Is TMC the metals (TMC) Using NOAA Permitting To Redefine Its Deep-Sea Mining Timeline?

• The Metals Company has recently advanced its push to harvest polymetallic nodules from the Pacific Ocean, pursuing parallel regulatory pathways through the International Seabed Authority and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to secure commercial mining approvals.
• These moves directly target the company’s core regulatory hurdle, signaling a concerted effort to shorten the route from experimental projects to potential commercial-scale deep-sea production.
• We’ll now examine how this bid to accelerate commercial permitting, particularly via NOAA, shapes The Metals Company’s broader investment narrative.

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What Is TMC the metals' Investment Narrative?

To own TMC today, you have to believe deep‑sea polymetallic nodules can move from concept to a permitted, financed and technically workable business before the cash and investor patience run out. The latest push to secure a parallel commercialization route through NOAA goes straight at the company’s main near‑term catalyst: getting some form of green light to move beyond pilot activity. It potentially shortens the regulatory path, but it also sharpens the key risks, because the share price has already run very hard on anticipation while TMC still reports large quarterly losses, zero revenue and continues to raise equity. In that context, insider selling in late 2025 and ongoing dilution matter more, since any setback in the NOAA or ISA processes could now have a larger impact on sentiment.

However, there is a concentration of regulatory and funding risks here that investors should understand. The valuation report we've compiled suggests that TMC the metals' current price could be inflated.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirty three Simply Wall St Community members place TMC’s fair value between US$1.05 and US$10.50, reflecting very different expectations. Set this against the binary weight now resting on NOAA and ISA decisions, and you can see why it is worth comparing several perspectives on what could go right or wrong for the business.

Explore 33 other fair value estimates on TMC the metals - why the stock might be worth as much as 47% more than the current price!

Build Your Own TMC the metals Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your TMC the metals research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 5 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free TMC the metals research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate TMC the metals' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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