Constellation Brands Q3 Preview: Tariff Concern Minimized, Can Warren Buffett's Favorite Beer Stock Rebound in 2026?

Beer and wine company Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) is expected to report another double-beat in revenue and earnings per share, signaling that tariff concerns may be manageable. The company reports third-quarter financial results Wednesday after market close.

Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying ahead of the report, and the key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Constellation Brands to report third-quarter revenue of $2.16 billion. That’s down from $2.46 billion in last year's third quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates in seven of the last 10 quarters.

Analysts expect the company to report third-quarter earnings per share of $2.64, down from $3.25 in last year's third quarter.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in nine of the last 10 quarters.

Constellation Brands beat analyst estimates for both earnings per share and revenue in the second quarter. The company missed both key financial figures in the first quarter.

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What Constellation Brands Analysts Are Saying

Constellation's expectations are "pretty muted" for the third quarter, according to Needham analyst Gerald Pascarelli.

Pascarelli maintained a Buy rating and price target of $180. Depletions should decline 5% in the quarter along with a 3.5% year-over-year decline in beer shipments, he added. These estimates could result in beer revenue being down 2% year over year.

There could be too much optimism in the company's beer segment for third-quarter financial estimates, Pascarelli added.

The analyst estimates that Constellation's overall revenue will be down 12.2% year over year. Organic revenue will likely be down 3.3% year over year, excluding the sale of certain wine brands in 2025.

"We do not expect a notable change in tone from management and do not view much risk to current guidance and expert STZ to reiterate its current outlook," Pascarelli said.  "The Hispanic consumer remains challenged, and there is nothing to suggest that an updated iteration of the company's omnibus study will point to a marked change in sentiment."

While the third quarter could be a struggle, the analyst points to the reiteration of guidance and fourth-quarter volume comps being "the easiest of the year," for the company.

The company could provide upside in commentary, with forward comparables favorable and the 2026 World Cup serving as a catalyst for the next fiscal year.

Pascarelli sees an optimistic risk/reward setup for the company over the next year. The analyst said the company has been hurt by headwinds "outside their control," such as macroeconomic pressures and a challenging environment for Hispanic consumers.

"We believe much of this ‘moment in time' bad news is already embedded in the shares."

Here are other recent analyst ratings on Constellation Brands and their price targets:

• Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $155 to $160
• Jefferies: Downgraded from Buy to Hold rating, lowered price target from $170 to $154

Key Items to Watch

While second-quarter revenue and earnings per share beat analyst estimates, the company's beer business reported a high-single-digit decline in net sales.

Constellation has the U.S. license for importing brands like Modelo, Corona and Pacifico. Modelo and Corona are among the top five imported beer brands for America.

The beverage company was one of many impacted by tariffs in 2025 and while that key story has minimized some, analysts and investors will be looking for Constellation to quantify what tariffs mean for costs in the third and fourth quarter and perhaps and early look at the next fiscal year estimates.

Analysts see Constellation as a company that will benefit from the 2026 World Cup. The U.S., Canada and Mexico are hosting. Company commentary on what the once-every-four-year soccer tournament could mean for revenue and how marketing will promote brands could help set expectations.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE:BRK)(NYSE:BRK) took a stake in Constellation Brands in the fourth quarter of 2024. The firm later added to the stake in the first and second quarters of 2025. The conglomerate, which Warren Buffett led as CEO for decades before recently stepping down, owned 13,400,000 shares at the end of the third quarter.

While Constellation likely won't comment on Berkshire's stake, Berkshire’s new CEO Greg Abel will likely be closely watching financial results. Constellation is one of the newer positions added by the conglomerate.

STZ Price Action: Constellation Brands stock is up 0.3% to $142.90 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $126.45 to $226.22. Constellation Brands shares are down 35.9% over the last year.

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