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    How Uber’s Robotaxi Competition Downgrade At Uber Technologies (UBER) Has Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·01/06/2026 09:37:08
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    • Melius Research recently downgraded Uber Technologies to Sell, flagging intensifying autonomous vehicle competition as a major risk to its ride-hailing and delivery businesses.
    • The downgrade underscores how emerging robotaxi players, including partners and rivals, could challenge Uber’s pricing power and long-term profitability assumptions.
    • Next, we’ll examine how this heightened autonomous vehicle competition risk may alter Uber’s investment narrative and its long-term margin outlook.

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    Uber Technologies Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Uber today, you have to believe its global marketplace for rides, delivery and local commerce can keep compounding cash flows despite shifting technology and regulation. The Melius downgrade sharpens the focus on autonomous vehicles as the key near term risk, but it does not fundamentally change the current profit story or the main catalyst, which is how effectively Uber integrates human drivers and early AV partnerships without eroding margins.

    In that context, Uber’s deepening push into robotaxis, including its Lucid and Nuro partnership for a production intent robotaxi and the goal of operating AV services in multiple markets by 2026, sits right at the heart of this debate. It reinforces why investors are so focused on whether AV partners eventually strengthen Uber’s platform economics or instead compress pricing and returns as competition from Waymo, Tesla and others intensifies.

    Yet investors should also weigh how intensifying AV competition could affect Uber’s pricing power and its ability to sustain current profitability...

    Read the full narrative on Uber Technologies (it's free!)

    Uber Technologies' narrative projects $71.2 billion revenue and $9.7 billion earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Uber Technologies' forecasts yield a $112.06 fair value, a 39% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    UBER 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    UBER 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Across 61 Simply Wall St Community valuations, fair value estimates range from US$75 to about US$192 per share, showing just how far apart individual views can be. You can set those opinions against the growing concern that autonomous vehicle rivals may pressure Uber’s market share and margins, which could be critical for how the business performs over time.

    Explore 61 other fair value estimates on Uber Technologies - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Uber Technologies Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.