Top Economist Warns US Economy Showing Recessionary Weakness Akin To 2009 Despite 4.3% Q3 GDP Growth

Top economist David Rosenberg has issued a stark warning about the underlying health of the U.S. economy, contrasting a robust headline GDP figure with deteriorating industrial data that he argues signals recessionary weakness comparable to the 2009 financial crisis.

The Industrial Reality

In a post on X on Monday, the president of Rosenberg Research highlighted a massive disconnect between official government growth data and on-the-ground industrial activity.

While the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently reported a 4.3% annualized increase in third-quarter real GDP—fueled by government spending and consumption—Rosenberg points to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Report as evidence of a much grimmer reality.

According to the December ISM data, only 11% of U.S. industries reported any growth, a sharp decline from 22% in November and 39% a year prior. Rosenberg noted that this 11% share is “tied for the second-lowest reading since … April 2009, when the Great Recession hadn't even reached its worst point”.

Apparently, we have a reported +4% growth economy on our hands at the same time that the ISM tells us that only 11% of U.S. industries reported any growth at all in December, down from 22% in November, 33% in October, and 39% a year ago. That 11% share of industries in expansion…

— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) January 5, 2026

See Also: GDP ‘Nowhere Near’ 4.3%: Rosenberg Dismisses Q3 Report As ‘Fugazi,’ Pegs Real Growth At 0.8%

A Hollow Expansion?

The official ISM report confirms the contraction, with the Manufacturing PMI registering at 47.9% in December, marking the 10th consecutive month of contraction. Out of 18 manufacturing industries, only two—Electrical Equipment and Computer & Electronic Products—reported growth.

Rosenberg has previously criticized the robust third-quarter GDP numbers as a “fugazi,” or fake, suggesting that once government spending and depleted personal savings are stripped away, real growth is closer to a stagnant 0.8%.

The data support his skepticism regarding the breadth of the economic expansion: while the BEA reported increases in consumer spending and exports, the industrial base appears to be shrinking.

Echoes Of 2009

The comparison to April 2009 serves as a direct challenge to the overwhelming market optimism. According to Bank of America's December Global Fund Manager Survey, 94% of investors currently expect a “soft landing” or “no landing” scenario, with cash allocations crashing to record lows.

Rosenberg's analysis suggests this consensus may be misplaced. By flagging that industrial participation is currently just as narrow as it was during the Great Recession, he argues that the headline GDP strength is masking a severe, localized depression in the industrial sector—a risk seemingly ignored by the 94% of fund managers betting on continued growth.

The benchmark indices closed higher on the first trading day of the first full trading week of 2026.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, closed higher on Monday. The SPY was up 0.67% at $687.72, while the QQQ advanced 0.79% to $617.99, according to Benzinga Pro data.

The futures of the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 indices were higher on Tuesday.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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