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For AES, you really have to believe in its shift toward contracted renewables and storage while it manages a leveraged balance sheet and legacy fossil assets. The new clean energy collaboration supports that long term pivot, but on its own it does not materially change the near term need for consistent quarterly execution, cost control, and visible progress on debt reduction, which remain the key catalyst and risk that many investors are watching.
Among recent announcements, the most relevant in this context is AES’s steady dividend at US$0.17595 per share through 2025 and into early 2026. Maintaining this payout while funding heavy renewables and utility capex highlights the tension between income returns and balance sheet flexibility, which links directly back to the short term catalyst of disciplined capital allocation and the risk that higher interest costs could pressure free cash flow if funding conditions tighten.
Yet behind the headline growth in clean energy projects, investors should also be aware of how sensitive AES’s plans are to future shifts in U.S. policy support for renewables...
Read the full narrative on AES (it's free!)
AES' narrative projects $12.0 billion revenue and $1.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 0.0% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about $0.8 billion from $919.0 million today.
Uncover how AES' forecasts yield a $15.29 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.
Simply Wall St Community members have 11 fair value estimates for AES, stretching from US$7.17 to US$22.20 per share, so you can compare a wide range of views. Against that backdrop, the reliance on ongoing U.S. renewables incentives and the potential for policy changes after 2027 is a central issue that could shape how those different valuations play out in AES’s actual results.
Explore 11 other fair value estimates on AES - why the stock might be worth as much as 50% more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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