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    A Look At Pagaya Technologies (PGY) Valuation After Recent Share Price Swings

    Simply Wall St·01/05/2026 09:25:14
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    Pagaya Technologies (PGY) has been drawing attention after recent share price swings, with the stock closing at US$22.28 as investors weigh its artificial intelligence focused lending platform and current financial profile.

    See our latest analysis for Pagaya Technologies.

    The recent 1 day share price return of 6.6% and 7 day share price return of 3.3% contrast with a 30 day share price decline of 10.3% and a 90 day share price decline of 26.4%. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return of 115.1% and 3 year total shareholder return of 68.8% point to momentum that has built over a longer horizon as investors reassess the company’s artificial intelligence lending model and risk profile.

    If Pagaya’s swings have caught your eye, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out high growth tech and AI stocks as potential next ideas.

    With Pagaya posting US$1.25b in revenue, a net loss of US$193.6m, a value score of 5, and a market price below the average analyst target, you have to ask: is this a discounted AI lender, or is the market already pricing in its future growth potential?

    Most Popular Narrative: 45% Undervalued

    With Pagaya’s fair value estimate set at US$40.50 against a last close of US$22.28, the most followed narrative sees a wide valuation gap and ties it squarely to earnings power over the next few years.

    Persistent investment and advancement in proprietary AI-driven underwriting, combined with growing data network effects from onboarding more partners, enhance credit decision accuracy and operational scalability, supporting higher net margins and improved long-term profitability.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious what kind of revenue ramp, margin shift and earnings profile that narrative is baking in, and how those cash flows get discounted back to today? The full set of assumptions is where the story really gets interesting.

    Result: Fair Value of $40.50 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this hinges on regulators staying comfortable with AI underwriting and on Pagaya keeping key funding and lending partners on board, as cracks in either could quickly challenge that fair value story.

    Find out about the key risks to this Pagaya Technologies narrative.

    Build Your Own Pagaya Technologies Narrative

    If you interpret the numbers differently, or prefer to test the assumptions yourself, you can create your own narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

    A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Pagaya Technologies.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If Pagaya has sparked your interest, do not stop here. Broaden your opportunity set and pressure test your thinking against other stocks using the Simply Wall St Screener.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.