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    How Fortescue’s Push Into Copper and Critical Minerals Will Impact Fortescue (ASX:FMG) Investors

    Simply Wall St·01/05/2026 07:20:43
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    • In the second half of 2025, Fortescue accelerated exploration in copper, rare earths, and lithium while benefiting from iron ore prices holding near US$100 per tonne, underpinning its near-term profitability.
    • An interesting angle is how this push into future-facing metals is being funded from a still-strong iron ore business and a balance sheet with a debt/equity ratio of 27.6%, potentially reshaping Fortescue’s earnings mix over time.
    • Next, we’ll examine how Fortescue’s expanded copper and critical minerals exploration could influence its existing investment narrative around earnings risk.

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    Fortescue Investment Narrative Recap

    To be a Fortescue shareholder today, you need to be comfortable with an iron ore centric business that is using its low cost operations and solid balance sheet to fund a push into copper and other critical minerals. The recent news of iron ore holding near US$100 per tonne supports the near term earnings catalyst, while the biggest current risk remains sensitivity to any sustained iron ore price weakness.

    The recent early tender offer to buy back up to US$750 million of notes sits alongside Fortescue’s exploration ramp up, reinforcing its focus on maintaining a relatively modest debt load while funding growth. For investors, that combination of copper and critical minerals exploration with active balance sheet management will likely shape how they think about earnings risk and the resilience of future cash flows.

    Yet while Fortescue’s balance sheet appears sound today, investors should be aware that...

    Read the full narrative on Fortescue (it's free!)

    Fortescue's narrative projects $14.4 billion revenue and $2.4 billion earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Fortescue's forecasts yield a A$19.18 fair value, a 13% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ASX:FMG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ASX:FMG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Simply Wall St Community members place Fortescue’s fair value between A$19.00 and A$24.42 across 11 separate views, underlining how far opinions can diverge. You can weigh those against the key risk that iron ore price movements still drive the bulk of Fortescue’s earnings and therefore its overall performance.

    Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Fortescue - why the stock might be worth as much as 10% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Fortescue Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.