Assessing Delek US Holdings (DK) Valuation After Recent Share Price Pullback

Trigger and context for Delek US Holdings

With no single headline event setting the tone, Delek US Holdings (DK) is drawing attention as investors weigh its recent share performance against its current earnings profile and integrated downstream energy footprint.

See our latest analysis for Delek US Holdings.

At a share price of $29.78, Delek US Holdings has had a 30 day share price return of an 18.21% decline and a 90 day share price return of a 5.55% decline, while its 1 year total shareholder return of 71.26% and 5 year total shareholder return of 91.97% point to momentum that has been built over a longer horizon.

If you are comparing Delek with other energy names, this can be a useful moment to scan the market and see what is standing out among aerospace and defense stocks.

With Delek US Holdings trading at $29.78 alongside an implied intrinsic discount and room to its analyst price target, the key question is whether the recent pullback leaves upside on the table or whether the market already reflects expectations for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 28.2% Undervalued

The most followed narrative places Delek US Holdings' fair value at US$41.50 per share compared with the last close of US$29.78, pointing to a sizeable valuation gap that hinges on execution and capital allocation.

Delek's sustained operational improvements, driven by its enterprise optimization program (EOP), which targets structural changes in refinery operations, procurement, and product sales, are expected to deliver $130–$170 million of annualized cash flow enhancements, with much of the benefit expected to flow through to net margins and free cash flow starting in the second half of 2025.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is baked into that cash flow uplift, margin rebuild, and future earnings power, plus how a specific valuation multiple ties it all together, read on.

This narrative applies an 8.75% discount rate to projected cash flows and earnings, then compares the implied fair value of US$41.50 to today’s share price. It builds its case around expected margin repair, a future earnings profile that differs from current losses, and the impact of ongoing share count reduction on per share metrics.

Result: Fair Value of $41.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this depends on Delek managing regulatory outcomes related to small refinery exemptions, as well as addressing ongoing net losses and debt that could constrain its future flexibility.

Find out about the key risks to this Delek US Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Delek US Holdings Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Delek US Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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