Why Venezuela's Vast Oil Reserves Could Reshape US Energy Winners And Losers — Three Stocks To Watch

Benzinga·01/04/2026 20:55:44

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The evolving U.S.–Venezuela standoff is drawing renewed attention from energy markets, as investors weigh how shifts in sanctions, diplomacy and oil policy could ripple through American companies. Venezuela holds the world's largest proven crude reserves, yet years of political turmoil, underinvestment and restrictions have left most of that oil stranded.

Recent developments have put Venezuela back in focus, particularly as Washington reassesses its approach toward Caracas and global oil supplies remain tight. Any adjustment in U.S. policy could reshape trade flows, production levels and refining economics.

One company closely tied to that outcome is Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX). Chevron is the only major U.S. oil producer still operating in Venezuela under a special Treasury license that permits limited extraction and exports. The company has decades-long joint ventures in the country.

If restrictions are loosened or U.S. influence expands, Chevron could gain broader access to Venezuela's heavy crude and potentially ship more barrels to Gulf Coast refineries.

Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL) represents another potential beneficiary. The oilfield services giant historically maintained equipment and infrastructure in Venezuela under narrow U.S. waivers. While current licenses do not allow drilling or crude handling, any future sanction relief could unlock demand for Halliburton's expertise as Venezuela attempts to repair aging wells, pipelines and production facilities.

Also Read: Oil Is Market To Watch as Venezuela Raid Raises Stakes

Refiners are also watching closely. Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) runs some of the most sophisticated heavy-crude refineries in the United States. Venezuelan oil is among the heaviest globally, making it well-suited for Valero's system.

If those barrels return to global markets, refiners like Valero could see improved margins through cheaper feedstock, even amid volatile oil prices.

"Venezuela could produce 4 million barrels instead of the 1 million barrels it produces per day, but it would take maybe a little bit less than a decade and $100 billion in total over that period to get it to 4 million barrels," Francisco Monaldi, an expert in Latin American energy policy at Rice University, told The Atlantic. "Very few countries can do something like that."

Despite holding roughly 17% of global oil reserves—more than 300 billion barrels—Venezuela currently pumps about 1 million barrels per day. Years of mismanagement, crumbling infrastructure and sanctions have capped output.

Roughly 80% of production flows to China, with about 15% reaching the U.S. through Chevron-linked ventures and smaller volumes sent to Cuba, reports The Atlantic.

Other U.S. energy players such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) could also feel indirect effects as global supply dynamics shift. Energy-focused funds including the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE) and the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) may see added volatility as policy signals emerge.