Corning Incorporated's (NYSE:GLW) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 25% Below Its Share Price

Key Insights

• Corning's estimated fair value is US$65.96 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of US$87.56 suggests Corning is potentially 33% overvalued
• The US$94.54 analyst price target for GLW is 43% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$2.08b	US$2.39b	US$3.19b	US$3.39b	US$3.55b	US$3.71b	US$3.86b	US$4.00b	US$4.15b	US$4.30b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 4.88%	Est @ 4.39%	Est @ 4.05%	Est @ 3.82%	Est @ 3.65%	Est @ 3.53%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.7%	US$1.9k	US$2.0k	US$2.5k	US$2.4k	US$2.3k	US$2.2k	US$2.1k	US$2.0k	US$2.0k	US$1.9k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$21b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₅ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$4.3b× (1 + 3.3%) ÷ (8.7%– 3.3%) = US$81b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$81b÷ ( 1 + 8.7%)¹⁰= US$35b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$57b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$87.6, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Corning as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.184. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

View our latest analysis for Corning

SWOT Analysis for Corning

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Corning, there are three additional elements you should look at:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Corning that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does GLW's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.