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华尔街日报Bitcoin, Ethereum On Track For First Down Year Since 2022, But Cantor Sees Long-Term Bull Case
Asset management firm Cantor describes 2025 as a pivotal year for crypto regulation, institutional adoption and innovation, even as the market enters its first meaningful downturn since 2022.
What Happened: Cantor said in its 2026 outlook that despite stronger fundamentals and improving policy clarity, fears surrounding Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) four-year cycle and a tougher macroeconomic backdrop are weighing on prices.
The firm said current conditions resemble the early stages of a crypto winter.
Bitcoin remains structurally bullish over the long term, but Cantor expects short-term pressure to persist. If historical patterns hold, the downturn may still be in its early phase, leaving room for further weakness.
Key themes highlighted include:
- Stablecoin supply grew more than 50% in 2025, though Cantor expects growth to slow in 2026 rather than reverse.
- Tokenized real-world assets remain one of the strongest secular growth stories. After expanding from $5.9 billion to $18.5 billion in 2025, Cantor expects the sector to surpass $50 billion in 2026.
- Prediction markets are emerging as a major growth area, with volumes nearly tripling year over year, driven largely by sports betting adoption.
- Ethereum's (CRYPTO: ETH) ecosystem activity is expected to support valuations even during a downturn. Cantor noted ETH's dominance in stablecoins, tokenization and layer-2 networks, viewing rising on-chain activity as similar to earnings growth.
Global crypto mergers and acquisitions hit a record $8.6 billion in 2025, up sharply from $2.17 billion in 2024.
Cantor attributed the surge to a more pro-crypto regulatory stance under the Trump administration and increasing policy clarity in the U.S.
Also Read: Crypto Momentum Stalled In Q4, But The Next Quarter Will Be Better: Grayscalev
Why It Matters: Cantor expects the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to pass in 2026, creating clearer distinctions between securities and commodities and reducing enforcement-driven uncertainty.
The firm said this could accelerate institutional participation, real-world asset adoption and convergence between centralized and decentralized markets.
However, Cantor expects digital asset treasury accumulation to slow significantly in 2026 as valuation premiums compress and sentiment remain cautious.
Rather than aggressive token accumulation, DATs are likely to prioritize buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and strategic ecosystem investments until bullish sentiment returns.
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