Nasdaq
华尔街日报Tesla Q4 Deliveries Face Steep Slump, Gene Munster Warns; Adds Real Value Now Lies In Physical AI
Electric vehicle giant Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) could struggle to follow up on a record third quarter marked by strong customer demand. Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster is predicting fourth-quarter deliveries could be even weaker than consensus estimates.
- Tesla stock is facing resistance. Why is TSLA stock trading lower?
Q4 Deliveries On Deck
Tesla is expected to report fourth quarter deliveries this week, as the company has typically reported results early into the next quarter. With analysts saying deliveries matter less going forward, the new report could show how investors feel about the key quarterly figure.
In a recent blog post, Munster says he expects Tesla to report fourth-quarter deliveries of around 415,000. This would be down 16% year-over-year and also come in shy of the consensus Street estimate of around 449,000.
Tesla reported record deliveries of 497,099 in the third quarter, which came with the U.S. federal tax credit expiring on Sept. 30, the last day of the quarter. Tesla reported deliveries of 495,570 in last year's fourth quarter.
Munster says his estimate accounts for the credit expiration, which will likely result in a larger-than-expected drop in deliveries.
"We believe growth in the business was similar from September to December after adjusting for the impact of the tax credit sunset in September," Munster said.
The good news for Tesla could be a potential market share gain in the fourth quarter, with Munster citing a Cox Automotive estimate that U.S. electric vehicle sales will be down 30% year-over-year for the quarter. If Tesla deliveries are down 16% that could indicate share gains against other struggling peers.
The more important good news for Tesla and its shareholders could be if delivery figures are minimized. In past years, misses on the delivery number by Tesla led to big swings in the share price. With analysts and experts placing greater emphasis on Tesla's AI and robotaxi segments than on deliveries, volatility could be minimized.
"Investors are likely to look past any December quarter delivery miss, as the results should suggest the auto business is beginning to stabilize."
Focus on AI Business
Munster can be added to the list of experts who will place greater emphasis on other Tesla metrics than vehicle deliveries going forward.
"Investor expectations for both the December quarter and full year 2026 deliveries have declined. The reason is simple. Investors are increasingly optimistic that Tesla is one of the best investments in physical AI, driven by FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus," Munster said.
The market expert said Tesla shares have outperformed the Nasdaq over the last six months and since the company last reported vehicle deliveries on Oct. 2.
Munster said Tesla currently trades at a market capitalization of $1.6 trillion, which could reflect a sum-of-the-parts premium relative to just the automotive business.
"I see that target closer to $4T than $1T," Munster said when asking what Tesla should be valued at, given its leadership in physical AI.
Munster said one of the key figures going forward after fourth quarter deliveries will be estimates for 2026 deliveries.
The market expert predicts deliveries will be flat to up 5% year over year, which is below the Street consensus estimate of 13% year-over-year growth.
"In the end, all Tesla needs to do next year is show that deliveries have stabilized, after likely finishing full year 2025 down around 8%."
Munster predicts Tesla can grow its deliveries by 15% or more annually, especially as competitors limit their exposure to the EV sector.
Read Next:
Photo: Shutterstock