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华尔街日报Cattle Markets Rally into the Weekend
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The cattle markets rallied to end the week on a strong note, playing catchup to the cash markets. February Live Cattle opened higher at the session low at 228.70 and quickly rallied to the high of the day at 230.55. It drifted the rest of the session and settled in the middle of the range at 229.65. March Feeder Cattle opened higher and down ticked to its low at 339.325. It reversed and rallied to its high at 341.65. It consolidated the rest of the session and settled in the middle of its range at 340.425. The cash markets have stabilized with Live Cattle trading as high as 230.00 for the past two weeks and the Feeder Index trending higher before Friday’s pullback that still leaves the index at a premium to the futures markets. Trade was stunted as we are in holiday mode with Friday, the day after the Christmas holiday keeping many traders on the sidelines. This has kept the cattle markets in a trading range the past two weeks as futures are forming Rectangle candle formations on the continuous charts. Both markets are in the middle of their recent trading ranges as concerns about 2026 demand has limited the futures markets’ ability push through resistance levels. With the holiday season nearing its end cutout prices have collapsed leaving concerns about cattle price stability going into 2026. The cutout breakdown has left traders worrying that high beef prices has finally curtailed demand for beef. With January around the corner, a slow season for beef demand, we could see limited upside for cash keeping pressure on futures. Feeder Cattle are seeing a slowdown in supply as producers postpone selling into the new year as we are seeing light trade take place and it looks like the feeders selling are in areas that are bringing lower prices. Early 2026 could see an increase in supply and a pullback in price. This could limit futures. We’ll see! February Live Cattle is in the middle of its recent trading range of 232.325 high and 226.85 low. It tested resistance at 230425 and closed below it. If Live Cattle can take out resistance at 230.425, we could see a test of resistance at 232.75. Resistance then comes in at 235.625. A breakdown from settlement could see a test of support at the declining 50-DMA now at 226.60. Support then comes in at 224.55. March Feeder Cattle tested resistance at 341.05 on the continuous chart. It settled below it. A breakout above 341.05 could see price test resistance at 344.675. The 100-DMA is next at 346.125. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 337.575. Support then comes in at 335.975.
The Feeder Cattle Index fell and is at 349.32 as of 12/25/2025.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts surged 4.35 to 361.63 and select jumped 2.05 to 346.02. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 15.61 and the load count was 98.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 110,000, which is above last week’s 108,000 and below last year’s 121,513. Saturday slaughter s expected to be 32,000, which is above last week’s 7,000 and below last year’s 34,402. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 429,000, which is below last week’s 587,000 and last year’s 433,042.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on moderate demand in all feeding regions. The last established market in Kansas was Tuesday at 229.00. The last established market in Nebraska was Wednesday with live purchases at 230.00 and dressed purchases at 356.00. The last established market in the Western Cornbelt was Wednesday with live purchases at 229.00 and last week with dressed purchases from 356.00-358.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 228.00 – 230.00 and from 356.00 – 360.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
United States Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on December 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below December 1, 2024.
Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.60 million head, 11 percent below 2024. Net placements were 1.54 million head. Placements were the lowest for November since the series began in 1996. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 435,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 375,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 320,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 255,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 130,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 80,000 head.
Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.52 million head, 12 percent below 2024. Marketings were the second lowest for November since the series began in 1996.
Other disappearance totaled 53,000 head during November, 4 percent below 2024.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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