Is Recursion (RXRX) Finally Proving Its AI Drug Discovery Model With REC-4881’s Early Data?

• In recent weeks, ARK Investment Management lifted its holdings in Recursion Pharmaceuticals by acquiring more than 2.8 million shares, while J.P. Morgan upgraded the company after strong Phase 1b/2 data for the AI-discovered candidate REC-4881 signaled meaningful efficacy and commercial promise.
• Together, the increased institutional ownership and favorable reassessment of REC-4881 highlight growing confidence that Recursion’s AI-first discovery platform is beginning to translate into clinically relevant assets.
• We’ll now examine how J.P. Morgan’s upbeat view on REC-4881’s efficacy and potential could reshape Recursion Pharmaceuticals’ investment narrative.

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Recursion Pharmaceuticals Investment Narrative Recap

To own Recursion Pharmaceuticals, you need to believe its AI-first platform can consistently turn high volume biological data into approved, commercially relevant drugs before its cash runway and dilution risks bite. The REC-4881 TUPELO data and J.P. Morgan upgrade strengthen the near term efficacy catalyst, but they do not remove the core risks around heavy cash burn, funding needs and dependence on a still early stage pipeline.

Among recent announcements, the positive Phase 1b/2 TUPELO results for REC-4881 in FAP are most directly connected to this shift in sentiment. The trial showed meaningful polyp burden reductions and a manageable safety profile, with Recursion planning to meet the FDA in 2026 to define a possible registration path, making REC-4881 the clearest current test of whether the platform can yield a commercially viable asset.

Yet despite the optimism around REC-4881, investors should also be aware that...

Read the full narrative on Recursion Pharmaceuticals (it's free!)

Recursion Pharmaceuticals’ narrative projects $220.9 million in revenue and $35.5 million in earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Recursion Pharmaceuticals' forecasts yield a $7.00 fair value, a 59% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$1.90 to US$12.50 per share, underlining how differently individuals see Recursion’s prospects. Against this spread, the key question many are wrestling with is whether REC-4881’s encouraging early data can offset concerns about ongoing cash burn and reliance on future funding, so it is worth weighing several viewpoints before forming your own.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Recursion Pharmaceuticals - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Recursion Pharmaceuticals Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Recursion Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Recursion Pharmaceuticals research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Recursion Pharmaceuticals' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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