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    Does Harley-Davidson’s 2026 ‘Chapter 2’ Lineup Reset Change The Bull Case For HOG?

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 12:30:32
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    • Harley-Davidson recently closed all 629 US dealerships for 24 hours on Christmas Day, and is preparing a January 14, 2026 "Chapter 2" event to unveil its 2026 model lineup with mechanical and aesthetic updates.
    • The upcoming "Chapter 2" reveal positions Harley-Davidson to showcase how refreshed models and design changes might support its longer-term brand and product transition efforts.
    • Now we’ll explore how the planned "Chapter 2" 2026 model reveal could influence Harley-Davidson’s investment narrative and future positioning.

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    Harley-Davidson Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Harley-Davidson, you generally need to believe the brand can convert its heritage into sustainable demand, even as core heavyweight segments mature and consumer spending stays pressured. The 24-hour Christmas shutdown and upcoming "Chapter 2" 2026 lineup reveal do not materially change the key near term catalyst, which is revitalizing demand across price points, or the biggest risk, which remains structurally weaker motorcycle sales amid tighter credit and macro uncertainty.

    The "Chapter 2" event ties closely to Harley-Davidson’s broader brand and product refresh, including its push into lower priced, small displacement models that aim to attract younger and more value conscious riders. How convincingly the 2026 lineup supports that entry segment, while still reinforcing the premium Harley identity, will be central to whether product updates can offset declining global retail sales and dependence on larger, higher ticket bikes.

    Yet for investors, the larger concern to watch is how ongoing weak motorcycle demand and tighter consumer budgets could...

    Read the full narrative on Harley-Davidson (it's free!)

    Harley-Davidson's narrative projects $3.9 billion revenue and $390.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires a 4.4% yearly revenue decline and about a $147.7 million earnings increase from $242.8 million today.

    Uncover how Harley-Davidson's forecasts yield a $27.50 fair value, a 32% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    HOG Earnings & Revenue Growth as at Dec 2025
    HOG Earnings & Revenue Growth as at Dec 2025

    Five members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Harley-Davidson’s fair value between US$19.00 and US$47.94, reflecting very different expectations. Before you decide where you stand, consider how declining global motorcycle retail sales might shape the company’s ability to support its brand transition and long term profitability.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Harley-Davidson - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Harley-Davidson Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.