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    MINISO Group Holding (NYSE:MNSO): Valuation Check After Experiential Store Debut in Thailand

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 10:22:52
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    MINISO Group Holding (NYSE:MNSO) is turning heads in Thailand, as its first overseas experiential store format at Bangkok's Siam Square and the new MINISO LAND attraction showcase how the brand is testing deeper engagement-driven retail.

    See our latest analysis for MINISO Group Holding.

    For investors, though, the story is more mixed, with the share price at $19.46 sitting after a year to date share price return of negative 22.81 percent, even as the three year total shareholder return of 84.22 percent still signals that longer term momentum has been powerful. Recent weakness may reflect changing risk perceptions rather than a broken growth story.

    If MINISO's experiential push has you thinking about where consumer brands go from here, it could be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to uncover other potential growth stories with aligned insiders.

    With solid double digit revenue and profit growth, but a sliding share price and a sizable gap to analyst targets, is MINISO quietly trading at a discount, or is the market already baking in its next growth chapter?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 25.7% Undervalued

    According to Bejgal, the narrative pins MINISO's fair value well above the recent 19.46 dollar close, framing the current pullback as a potential mispricing rather than a broken thesis.

    Assuming revenue doubles and the adjusted net margin expands from its current ~16-17% level to around 20% due to these factors, adjusted net earnings could potentially triple over the next five years.

    # Risks There are execution risks tied directly to the catalysts:

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see how an earnings profile built on faster growing overseas stores, richer margins, and a leaner cost base supports that punchy valuation? The narrative breaks down a surprisingly aggressive earnings ramp and a future profit multiple that might remind you more of consumer internet winners than legacy retailers. Curious which financial levers do the heavy lifting in that fair value math, and how sensitive the outcome is if any of them slip? Read on to unpack the full playbook behind this growth driven price target.

    Result: Fair Value of $26.20 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, sharper competition or disappointing returns from costly super stores could slow overseas momentum and challenge the assumption of steadily expanding margins.

    Find out about the key risks to this MINISO Group Holding narrative.

    Build Your Own MINISO Group Holding Narrative

    If you would rather review the numbers yourself than rely on this view, you can quickly build a custom MINISO story in minutes, Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your MINISO Group Holding research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for your next investing move?

    Before you move on, consider a few fresh ideas from the Simply Wall St Screener so you are not relying on one story to drive your returns.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.