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    Did Doubling MGM China’s Brand Fees Just Shift MGM Resorts International's (MGM) Investment Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·12/25/2025 05:26:54
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    • MGM Resorts International announced in December 2025 that it had entered a new long-term branding agreement with MGM China, effective January 1, 2026, doubling the monthly license fee rate to 3.5% of adjusted consolidated net revenues and extending brand use at least through the current Macau concession ending in 2032.
    • This deal locks in MGM China’s access to what management calls its most important intangible asset after the concession, aligning fees with post-pandemic gains in Macau market share and providing MGM Resorts with a more predictable stream of branding income.
    • Next, we’ll examine how locking in higher, recurring brand-license income from MGM China could influence MGM Resorts’ broader investment narrative.

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    MGM Resorts International Investment Narrative Recap

    To own MGM Resorts today, you need to believe the company can convert its mix of Las Vegas, Macau and digital gaming assets into steadier earnings despite recent margin pressure and heavy capital commitments. The new MGM China brand agreement modestly supports that case in the near term by locking in higher recurring fee income, but it does not change that the biggest short term swing factor remains how premium gaming demand and visitation hold up against rising costs and project spending.

    Among the recent announcements, the progress on MGM’s Osaka integrated resort stands out most in this context, because it highlights the same long dated, capital intensive growth path that the Macau branding deal supports from a cash flow angle. As MGM leans into Osaka’s construction and other global projects, recurring fees from MGM China can help offset some earnings volatility, but they also sit alongside the risk of overextension if project returns or regulatory timelines disappoint.

    Yet investors should be aware that heavy multi year capital deployments into projects like Osaka could still...

    Read the full narrative on MGM Resorts International (it's free!)

    MGM Resorts International's narrative projects $18.4 billion revenue and $906.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $369.7 million earnings increase from $536.4 million today.

    Uncover how MGM Resorts International's forecasts yield a $42.50 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MGM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MGM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see MGM’s fair value anywhere between US$26.92 and US$86.31, underscoring how far apart views on the stock can be. When you weigh that spread against the company’s rising long term project commitments and execution risk, it becomes even more important to compare several independent perspectives before deciding where you stand.

    Explore 7 other fair value estimates on MGM Resorts International - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

    Build Your Own MGM Resorts International Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.