The board of Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:6178) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥25.00 per share on the 26th of June. This means that the annual payment will be 3.0% of the current stock price, which is in line with the average for the industry.
Solid dividend yields are great, but they only really help us if the payment is sustainable. Japan Post Holdings is quite easily earning enough to cover the dividend, however it is being let down by weak cash flows. With the company not bringing in any cash, paying out to shareholders is bound to become difficult at some point.
Over the next year, EPS is forecast to expand by 8.5%. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio will be 36%, which is in the range that makes us comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.
See our latest analysis for Japan Post Holdings
Even over a long history of paying dividends, the company's distributions have been remarkably stable. The most recent annual payment of ¥50.00 is about the same as the annual payment 10 years ago. Although we can't deny that the dividend has been remarkably stable in the past, the growth has been pretty muted.
The company's investors will be pleased to have been receiving dividend income for some time. However, Japan Post Holdings has only grown its earnings per share at 4.6% per annum over the past five years. Earnings growth is slow, but on the plus side, the dividend payout ratio is low and dividends could grow faster than earnings, if the company decides to increase its payout ratio.
In summary, while it's good to see that the dividend hasn't been cut, we are a bit cautious about Japan Post Holdings' payments, as there could be some issues with sustaining them into the future. With cash flows lacking, it is difficult to see how the company can sustain a dividend payment. We don't think Japan Post Holdings is a great stock to add to your portfolio if income is your focus.
It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. Taking the debate a bit further, we've identified 1 warning sign for Japan Post Holdings that investors need to be conscious of moving forward. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.