A Look at Axalta Coating Systems’ Valuation After Its Recent Short-Term Share Price Rebound

Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) has quietly put together a steady run, with the stock up around 7% over the past month and roughly 10% in the past 3 months, despite a weaker year-to-date showing.

See our latest analysis for Axalta Coating Systems.

With the share price now around $32.24, the recent 30 day share price return of nearly 7 percent contrasts with a slightly negative year to date move. At the same time, multi year total shareholder returns suggest momentum is gradually rebuilding rather than fading.

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With earnings growing faster than revenue and the share price still trading at a double digit discount to analyst targets, investors now face a key question: Is Axalta undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 12.5% Undervalued

Against a last close of $32.24, the most followed narrative sees Axalta’s fair value meaningfully higher, setting up a story driven by long term earnings power rather than short term swings.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $604.8 million (and earnings per share of $2.92) by about September 2028, up from $446.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $505 million.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady top line growth, rising margins and a higher future earnings multiple combine into this upside case? The narrative breaks down the exact pathway from today’s profitability to that higher earnings base, then shows how a modest discount rate and a re rated valuation multiple can still justify a premium to the current price.

Result: Fair Value of $36.87 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent volume weakness and unfavorable price mix, along with delayed auto production recovery, could easily undermine the upbeat earnings and valuation trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this Axalta Coating Systems narrative.

Build Your Own Axalta Coating Systems Narrative

If this perspective does not quite fit your view or you prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Axalta Coating Systems research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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