The Real Reason Bitcoin Dropped Like A Stone From Its $126,000 All-Time High

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down $40,000 from its peak at the start of October.

According to new analysis it wasn’t retail traders or overleveraged longs that did the damage—it was whales who bought around the $126,000 all-time high and panic-sold into $84,000.

New Whales Dumped At Massive Losses

Large holders who bought near the top were forced to realize massive losses, creating sustained selling pressure that knocked Bitcoin down 32%.

CryptoQuant’s chart shows dramatic spikes in realized losses from new whale cohorts (blue bars) during the selloff. 

These addresses accumulated BTC during the rally, then sold at steep losses as the market reversed.

However, since hitting the recent low around $84,000, those realized losses have declined and are now flat. 

The new whale cohort that caused the crash has stopped selling.

Old Whales Stayed Put

Old whale cohorts maintained relatively stable behavior throughout the drawdown. 

Long-term holders largely sat through the decline, avoiding the panic that amplified the drop.

This matters as when only recent buyers are selling and long-term holders refuse to budge, it suggests the asset is finding a floor rather than cascading lower.

Polymarket Shows $95,000-$100,000 Range Most Likely

Prediction market Polymarket shows Bitcoin has only an 18% chance to reach $95,000 by the end of 2025.

Tapping $100,000 is only given a 6% chance.

To the downside, $80,000 shows 15% odds as the bearish scenario.

Notably, odds of Bitcoin closing above $130,000 or below $70,000 are both under 1%, reinforcing the range-bound outlook.

Traders are betting on consolidation, not fireworks.

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