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    What NVIDIA (NVDA)'s Renewed China H200 Access Means For Shareholders

    Simply Wall St·12/23/2025 14:21:09
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    • Nvidia has received U.S. approval to resume shipments of its H200 AI chips to commercial customers in China from mid-February 2026, reopening access to a key market that had been constrained by export controls.
    • This decision revives what analysts had viewed as a rapidly growing China AI opportunity, potentially reshaping Nvidia’s long-term demand mix and regional exposure just as global AI infrastructure spending scales up.
    • With H200 shipments to China back on the table, we’ll examine how this reopened market affects Nvidia’s multi-year AI infrastructure growth story.

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    NVIDIA Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Nvidia today, you have to believe the multi-year AI infrastructure buildout continues to favor its GPUs and software stack, even as competition and custom chips gain traction. The U.S. decision to allow H200 exports to China from 2026 directly supports the key near term catalyst of sustained data center demand, while also partly easing the biggest current overhang around China-related export controls, though geopolitical and customer concentration risks remain significant.

    Alongside the H200 approval, Nvidia’s Nemotron 3 open model family matters because it reinforces the company’s role not just as a hardware supplier but as a full AI platform. If Nemotron 3 and its NeMo tools succeed in powering agentic AI workloads at scale, they could deepen Nvidia’s software moat and help offset any future pressure from hyperscalers’ custom accelerators.

    But while the China export news is encouraging, investors should still pay close attention to the growing push by hyperscalers to build their own AI chips, because...

    Read the full narrative on NVIDIA (it's free!)

    NVIDIA's narrative projects $337.2 billion revenue and $187.9 billion earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how NVIDIA's forecasts yield a $250.39 fair value, a 36% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

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    NVDA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    407 members of the Simply Wall St Community currently place Nvidia’s fair value between US$104 and US$341.12, a wide span of expectations. Against that backdrop, the reopened H200 sales into China could materially influence how you think about Nvidia’s future AI infrastructure demand and the risk that large customers shift more workloads to in house or ASIC alternatives.

    Explore 407 other fair value estimates on NVIDIA - why the stock might be worth as much as 86% more than the current price!

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.