Stifel Financial (SF) Valuation Check After Record Client Assets and Optimistic Fourth-Quarter Outlook

Stifel Financial (SF) just posted record client assets for November, with total assets up 8% and fee based assets up 14% year over year. This has been a key driver behind the stock’s recent momentum.

See our latest analysis for Stifel Financial.

That backdrop of record client assets has helped fuel a clear upswing in sentiment, with a roughly 10% 1 month share price return and a powerful 135.8% three year total shareholder return suggesting momentum is still building rather than fading.

If Stifel’s recent strength has you thinking more broadly about financials, it could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other high conviction ideas.

Yet with the shares hovering just shy of analyst targets and trading at a premium to some peers, investors now face a tougher question: Is Stifel still undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 2.8% Undervalued

With Stifel Financial closing at $128.73 versus a narrative fair value near $132.38, the story tilts slightly in favor of further upside.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $117.857 for Stifel Financial based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $132.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $105.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Behind this modest upside is a bold blueprint for faster revenue, higher margins, and a lower future valuation multiple than many peers enjoy today. Curious which assumptions really move that fair value line?

Result: Fair Value of $132.38 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent market volatility and unresolved legal overhangs could pressure margins and deal activity, which could quickly undermine the upbeat earnings and valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Stifel Financial narrative.

Another Way to Look at Value

While the narrative fair value suggests a small 2.8% upside, our DCF model comes to a very different conclusion, pointing to fair value of about $93.16, which would make the current price look rich instead of cheap. Which story do you think is closer to reality?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Stifel Financial for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 902 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Stifel Financial Narrative

If you are not fully aligned with this view or prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized take in minutes: Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Stifel Financial.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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