Stanley Black & Decker (SWK): Revisiting Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) has quietly turned a corner, with the stock up about 3% in a day and roughly 14% over the past month, drawing fresh attention to its recovery story.

See our latest analysis for Stanley Black & Decker.

That recent bounce sits against a more mixed backdrop, with the latest share price at $75.24, a negative year to date share price return, but a modestly improving one year total shareholder return. This suggests sentiment is cautiously turning rather than roaring back.

If this turnaround story has your attention, it could be a good moment to explore other industrial names and see what stands out in fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares still trading below analyst targets but up sharply in recent weeks, the key question now is whether Stanley Black & Decker remains undervalued or if the market is already pricing in its next leg of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 11.8% Undervalued

With Stanley Black & Decker last closing at $75.24 against a narrative fair value near $85.30, the valuation case leans toward a measured upside story.

The multi-year supply chain transformation nearing its final phase is delivering substantial recurring cost reductions, improved operational flexibility, and resilience to trade/tariff shocks, management expects these initiatives to drive gross margin back to 35%+ by late 2026, supporting sustained improvements in net margins and earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what this margin reset really means for future profits, cash flows, and valuation multiples? The narrative quietly bakes in a transformation-level shift. Curious which assumptions do the heavy lifting behind that upside, and how long the market is expected to wait for them to show up in the numbers?

Result: Fair Value of $85.30 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the outlook could be challenged if DIY and Outdoor demand stays weak and rising tariffs or cost pressures prevent the expected margin expansion.

Find out about the key risks to this Stanley Black & Decker narrative.

Build Your Own Stanley Black & Decker Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Stanley Black & Decker research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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