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To own Erie Indemnity, you have to believe in the durability of its agency-focused model, its ability to keep growing fee-based revenue steadily, and its discipline around underwriting and expenses. Recent results show mid-single-digit revenue growth and double-digit earnings growth, with high returns on equity, but the share price has fallen about 30% year to date after a strong multi‑year run and now trades on a richer earnings multiple than many peers. The latest 7.1% dividend increase reinforces the story of consistent cash generation rather than changing it, and is unlikely to alter the key short term catalysts, which remain earnings trends, pricing power in a competitive insurance market, and how investors reassess paying a premium multiple. The bigger risks stay intact, including valuation pressure if growth moderates or sentiment toward insurance weakens. However, one important risk could matter far more than the higher dividend.
Erie Indemnity's share price has been on the slide but might be up to 29% below fair value. Find out if it's a bargain.Two fair value views from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$221.51 to US$332.66, underlining how far apart individual expectations can sit. Set against Erie’s premium valuation and recent share price weakness, that spread invites you to weigh how much growth and dividend dependability you think the market will keep rewarding.
Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Erie Indemnity - why the stock might be worth as much as 16% more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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