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To own Viasat, you effectively have to believe its heavy investment in a global, multi-orbit satellite network will translate into durable demand from government, mobility, and space customers despite ongoing losses and leverage pressure. The new unified Ka-band government network strengthens the near term government connectivity catalyst by making better use of ViaSat-3 and Inmarsat assets, but it does not materially change the key risk that large capital projects and high capex keep free cash flow tight.
Among the recent announcements, the INNOSPACE launch telemetry deal stands out as especially relevant, because it showcases how Viasat is extending its network into space-to-ground services through the HaloNet portfolio. While small in isolation, this kind of contract ties back to the same core catalyst as the unified Ka-band network: monetizing the existing orbital and ground infrastructure more efficiently across government, aviation, and emerging space services.
Yet behind the promise of a unified global network, investors should be aware that the scale and timing of ViaSat-3 related spending could still...
Read the full narrative on Viasat (it's free!)
Viasat's narrative projects $5.0 billion revenue and $534.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.9% yearly revenue growth and a $1,132.7 million earnings increase from -$598.5 million today.
Uncover how Viasat's forecasts yield a $36.25 fair value, in line with its current price.
Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Viasat’s fair value anywhere between US$10 and about US$100, highlighting sharply different expectations. Against that diversity, the unified Ka-band launch sharpens the focus on whether heavy ViaSat-3 and Inmarsat capex can be supported without prolonged pressure on free cash flow and earnings.
Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Viasat - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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