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    Nebius Group (NBIS) Is Up 14.9% After Mega AI Cloud Deals With Microsoft and Meta - What's Changed

    Simply Wall St·12/22/2025 23:32:32
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    • Nebius Group recently launched Nebius AI Cloud 3.1, adding NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra-based infrastructure, new capacity-management tools, and enhanced security and governance features to support large-scale enterprise AI workloads.
    • These technology upgrades arrive alongside multibillion-dollar, multi-year AI infrastructure contracts with Microsoft and Meta, which sharply increase Nebius’s revenue visibility but also heighten customer concentration risk.
    • Now we’ll examine how Nebius’s mega-deals with Microsoft and Meta reshape its investment narrative, especially around growth visibility and risk.

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    Nebius Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Nebius, you have to believe that demand for high end AI infrastructure will stay strong enough for the company to ramp its massive Microsoft and Meta contracts and justify heavy data center spending. The launch of Nebius AI Cloud 3.1 supports that story by showcasing cutting edge technology, but the largest near term catalyst remains execution on those mega deals, while the biggest risk is concentration in just a few hyperscale customers.

    The most relevant recent announcement is Nebius’s multibillion dollar, multi year contract with Microsoft, valued at about US$17.4 billion to US$19.4 billion. This agreement materially boosts revenue visibility and underpins the capacity expansion that AI Cloud 3.1 is designed to serve, but it also deepens reliance on a single partner at a time when investors are already focused on debt funding and the long payback of large scale GPU and data center builds.

    Yet investors should also weigh how much of Nebius’s future now hinges on a handful of hyperscalers and what happens if their AI spending...

    Read the full narrative on Nebius Group (it's free!)

    Nebius Group's narrative projects $3.2 billion revenue and $428.7 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Nebius Group's forecasts yield a $159.29 fair value, a 71% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    NBIS 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NBIS 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Thirty one members of the Simply Wall St Community value Nebius anywhere between US$15.07 and US$159.29 per share, with estimates spread across the full range. Against this backdrop, Nebius’s dependence on very large AI infrastructure contracts with Microsoft and Meta raises important questions about customer concentration and how resilient those revenue streams might be if hyperscaler spending patterns change.

    Explore 31 other fair value estimates on Nebius Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 71% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Nebius Group Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.