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To own Tokyo Seimitsu, you really have to believe in its role as an enabling supplier to steadily growing semiconductor test and metrology demand, rather than a hyper-growth AI pure play. Short term, the key catalysts still look like order trends in the SPE segment, execution against its FY2026/3 guidance after the recent downward EPS revision, and how far management leans into shareholder returns following the dividend reset. The new co-development with Advantest adds an interesting twist: it could deepen Tokyo Seimitsu’s relevance in AI and HPC testing, but given the early stage and lack of quantified targets, the earnings impact is unlikely to be immediate. For now, it subtly shifts the story toward higher-spec tools, while the bigger risks remain margin pressure, quality-related cost provisions and recent volatility in the share price.
However, one issue in particular could challenge the appeal of today’s valuation and dividend profile. Tokyo Seimitsu's share price has been on the slide but might be up to 7% below fair value. Find out if it's a bargain.Explore another fair value estimate on Tokyo Seimitsu - why the stock might be worth just ¥11586!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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