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    How Investors Are Reacting To H World Group (HTHT) Serenity Capital’s Bigger Bet On Its Asset-Light Shift

    Simply Wall St·12/21/2025 23:16:14
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    • In the past quarter, Singapore-based Serenity Capital Management lifted its holding in H World Group to nearly 1.3 million shares, a US$49.8 million position that now ranks as the fund’s fourth-largest.
    • This increased backing comes as H World Group pushes further into an asset-light model, with manachised and franchised revenue rising 27% year over year and supported by a pipeline of roughly 2,700 hotels.
    • We’ll examine how Serenity Capital’s sizable commitment, aligned with H World Group’s asset-light push, may reshape the company’s investment narrative.

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    H World Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own H World Group, you need to believe its shift toward an asset-light, manachised and franchised model can offset RevPAR pressure from rising supply and macro uncertainty. Serenity Capital’s larger stake does not change that near term; the key catalyst remains execution on high-margin franchised growth, while the biggest risk is overexpansion into weaker lower tier cities.

    The recent Q2 and first half 2025 results are particularly relevant here, with manachised and franchised revenue growth far outpacing overall sales and supporting the asset-light narrative that Serenity is leaning into. At the same time, management’s guidance for only low single digit revenue growth underlines how sensitive the story still is to room demand, pricing and RevPAR trends across a much larger hotel base.

    Yet while the asset-light shift looks appealing, investors should be aware that rapid rollout into lower tier cities could still...

    Read the full narrative on H World Group (it's free!)

    H World Group's narrative projects CN¥28.8 billion revenue and CN¥5.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about CN¥2.1 billion from CN¥3.8 billion today.

    Uncover how H World Group's forecasts yield a $50.83 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    HTHT 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    HTHT 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four members of the Simply Wall St Community value H World Group between US$18.67 and US$31,138.76, underscoring how far apart individual expectations can be. Set against concerns about potential overexpansion into weaker lower tier cities, this spread invites you to weigh several competing views on how resilient the company’s growth and margins might be.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on H World Group - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own H World Group Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.