IperionX (ASX:IPX): Weighing Valuation After New Carver Pump Prototyping Deal in U.S. Navy Supply Chain

IperionX (ASX:IPX) just moved its Carver Pump collaboration into the prototyping lane, with an initial order for titanium components that aim to slash U.S. Navy pump part lead times from over a year to under a week.

See our latest analysis for IperionX.

The move into prototyping comes as IperionX’s share price trades at A$5.03, with a 1 month share price return of 13.29% but a weaker 3 month share price return of minus 25.04%. Long term total shareholder returns above 600% over three years suggest momentum has cooled rather than reversed.

If this kind of defense focused story has your attention, it could be a good moment to explore aerospace and defense stocks as you look for other potential standouts in the space.

Yet with analysts seeing nearly 80% upside to their price targets, but revenue still minimal and losses sizable, investors face a puzzle: is IperionX undervalued today or already priced for flawless execution and future growth?

Price to Book of 12.1x: Is It Justified?

On a price to book basis, IperionX looks expensive at A$5.03, trading far above both its peers and the wider Australian metals and mining sector.

The price to book ratio compares a company’s market value to its net assets. It is a common yardstick for asset heavy, early stage materials businesses like IperionX.

Here, the gap is stark. IperionX trades on a 12.1x price to book ratio compared with around 2.5x for peers and 2.3x across the Australian metals and mining industry. That premium indicates the market is already pricing in substantial future growth and profitability long before meaningful revenue arrives.

Given this backdrop, investors are effectively paying several turns more than the sector for each dollar of book value. This reflects a view that IperionX may grow into a valuation far ahead of traditional miners and materials names.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Result: Price to Book of 12.1x (OVERVALUED)

However, lingering losses and essentially no current revenue mean that any delays in scaling titanium powder production could quickly undermine today’s growth premium.

Find out about the key risks to this IperionX narrative.

Another View: DCF Says Deep Value

While the rich 12.1x price to book suggests IperionX is priced for perfection, our DCF model paints a very different picture, indicating fair value around A$29.73 versus today’s A$5.03. If the cash flows materialize, is the market badly misreading this story?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out IperionX for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 914 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own IperionX Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own thesis, you can build a personalised view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your IperionX research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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