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    Reassessing ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO)’s Valuation After Upgraded Earnings Forecasts and Stronger Parcel Growth

    Simply Wall St·12/21/2025 11:10:19
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    Analysts have just lifted earnings forecasts for ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) for this year and 2026, citing stronger parcel volumes, healthier revenue in core express delivery, and solid operational execution.

    See our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman).

    Those upgraded earnings forecasts arrive after a solid run in the stock, with the 1 month share price return of 10.67 percent and year to date share price gain of 11.77 percent suggesting positive momentum. At the same time, the 3 year total shareholder return of negative 11.68 percent and 5 year total shareholder return of negative 15.27 percent remind investors that the longer term picture is still in repair mode.

    If ZTO’s improving outlook has you thinking beyond a single name, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential next wave candidates.

    With earnings estimates rising and the share price already recovering, investors now face a key question: does ZTO still trade at a meaningful discount to its future potential, or is the market already pricing in this growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 8.7% Undervalued

    With ZTO Express (Cayman) last closing at $21.27 against a most popular narrative fair value near $23.29, the story implies room for further upside.

    Ongoing mix improvement reflected in over 50% year on year growth in retail parcel volume and a higher share of differentiated or premium services supports higher per parcel unit revenues and gross profits (for example, CN¥0.17 per unit lift in revenue and CN¥0.02 per unit in gross profit), buffering the business against commoditization and enhancing medium term earnings.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see how this shift in parcel mix turns into a richer valuation story? The narrative quietly leans on bolder margin resilience and long term earnings power than the market seems to be assuming. Curious which specific profit and revenue trajectories have been baked into that upside case, and how far the future multiple stretches those assumptions?

    Result: Fair Value of $23.29 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this upbeat case could crack if parcel growth keeps slowing or automation spending fails to deliver the expected cost savings and margin gains.

    Find out about the key risks to this ZTO Express (Cayman) narrative.

    Build Your Own ZTO Express (Cayman) Narrative

    If you see the story differently or simply prefer your own deep dive, you can build a fresh, data driven view in just minutes using Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your ZTO Express (Cayman) research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.