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    Is Lockheed’s US$1 Billion SDA Satellite Award Altering The Investment Case For Lockheed Martin (LMT)?

    Simply Wall St·12/21/2025 02:22:26
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    • The Space Development Agency has awarded Lockheed Martin a contract valued at more than US$1.00 billion to build 18 advanced missile-warning and tracking satellites for its Tranche 3 Tracking Layer constellation, expanding the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture.
    • This award lifts Lockheed Martin’s total SDA satellite count to 124 space vehicles, underlining its growing role in next-generation missile defense space infrastructure.
    • We’ll now examine how this large SDA missile-tracking satellite award influences Lockheed Martin’s investment narrative, particularly its space segment growth.

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    Lockheed Martin Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Lockheed Martin today, you need to believe its core franchises in fighters, missiles and space can translate a record backlog into steadier earnings, despite recent program charges and slower growth than peers. The new SDA Tranche 3 satellite award reinforces the space segment and supports the missile warning catalyst, but it does not fundamentally change the biggest near term risk, which remains cost and execution pressure on complex, fixed price and legacy programs.

    Among the recent announcements, the build out of the Next Generation Interceptor facility in Alabama connects most clearly to this SDA win, because both sit at the intersection of missile defense demand and Lockheed’s push into more digital, modular production. Together, these programs highlight how execution on next generation missile defense and space contracts could matter more for the story than incremental fighter orders, even if they also increase scrutiny on cost control and schedule performance.

    Yet while contract momentum is strong, investors should also be aware that growing exposure to complex, fixed price missile and space programs could...

    Read the full narrative on Lockheed Martin (it's free!)

    Lockheed Martin's narrative projects $81.0 billion revenue and $7.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.9 billion earnings increase from $4.2 billion today.

    Uncover how Lockheed Martin's forecasts yield a $528.17 fair value, a 11% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    LMT 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    LMT 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Twenty six members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Lockheed Martin’s fair value between US$389 and US$621, underlining how far opinions can stretch. Set this against the catalyst of sustained demand for advanced missile defense and space systems, and it becomes even more important to weigh several different views on how that backlog might translate into future performance.

    Explore 26 other fair value estimates on Lockheed Martin - why the stock might be worth as much as 31% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Lockheed Martin Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.